Investment in Share Market

What is the best way to achieve financial freedom? Should you leave your money tucked away in the bank or plough it into the stock market where the potential for strong returns is greater but the chances of losing money is higher? Most people prefer stock market and why not? But do we know how shares reward an investor?

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Carry Trade - Suspected major cause of Feb crisis?

If anyone notice, the chinese press use still believe that China is the main impact of the great fall. The US economist think it from different perspective.

Carry Trade Defination
A strategy where an investor borrows in a foreign country with lower interest rates than their home country and invests the funds in their domestic market, usually in fixed-income securities.
Notes:It's like free money, right? Well, not quite. The big risk is the uncertainty of exchange rates. Remember, you've still got to pay back the money in a foreign currency. If your domestic currency falls in value relative to the currency you borrowed, then you run the risk of losing money. Also, these transactions are generally done with a lot of leverage, so a small movement in exchange rates can result in huge losses unless hedged appropriately. An example of a "yen carry trade" is borrowing 1,000 yen from a Japanese bank, exchanging the funds into U.S. dollars and buying a bond for the equivalent amount. Assuming that the bond pays more than the amount you must pay the bank for borrowing the funds, and the exchange rate does not move adversely, you will earn a profit.

How does it impact share market of countries with higher interest rate and cause the selling pressure ...

Speculators borrow yen, trade the currency for dollars, and then buy Treasuries or U.S. properties or U.S. stocks. The Bank of Japan lends money at only 0.25%. This it has been doing ever since the mid-‘90s, when the BOJ sought to get the Japanese economy out of its funk by making money easier to get. A hedge fund, for example, can take advantage of this low interest rate by borrowing yen at, say, 1% and buying US bonds at a 5% yield. Or, he can be more aggressive and go for 7% by buying New Zealand bonds.
What makes the transaction dangerous to the speculator is that the yen may rise. What makes it dangerous to everyone else is that there are so many people who owe so many yen. And what makes it so attractive to contrarian investors is that with so much money counting on the yen to go lower...it is almost sure to go up.
If the yen were to rise 6% the speculator’s profit would be wiped out. And since these transactions are almost always highly leveraged, his capital could be wiped out too. This is exactly what happened when the most famous hedge fund of all time blew up in the late ‘90s. The yen went up. The Russians had a financial crisis. Speculators looked at their holdings and decided to unwind some of the leverage. That meant selling their assets and repaying yen. Of course, to repay yen you have to have yen. So, you’ve got to go into the currency market and buy them – which pushes up the price of yen. In 1998, the yen rose about 25% against the dollar in the space of a few weeks and Long Term Capital Management went bust.
Nobody knows how much of this ‘carry trade’ there is...but today, there is almost certainly a lot more than there was ten years ago. Today, there are thousands more hedge funds and many more speculators – with billions more to work with - all betting that the yen will stay put.

~ From Daily Reckoning

1 Comments:

  • At 3:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Great work.

     

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